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After defeating Georgetown in its final nonconference game on Saturday, Syracuse (7-2, 1-1 Atlantic Coast) returns to ACC play with a matchup against North Carolina. Buddy Boeheim led the Orange with 21 points against the Hoyas, while three others joined him in double-digits — continuing a season-long trend of balanced scoring.

The Tar Heels (7-4, 2-2 ACC), meanwhile, have won their past two games, defeating Notre Dame and Miami by one and two points, respectively.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen when Syracuse faces North Carolina:

Andrew Crane (8-1)
Not Chapel Hill, again
North Carolina 75, Syracuse 68

If Syracuse plays like it has the past two games, this one could get out of hand early, even though the Tar Heels already have four losses. Two double-digit leads evaporated against Pittsburgh and Georgetown due to a combination of poor shot selection, foul trouble, lack of rebounding and porous defense. Any, or all, of those factors emerging against UNC could lead to Syracuse’s second loss in three games.

Three of North Carolina’s four defeats this year have been by single-digits, and UNC is a physical, interior-oriented team that doesn’t shoot many 3s (27.3 3PA/FGA) and could dominate SU on the boards. Bourama Sidibe’s absence could worsen those disadvantages for Syracuse, just as it has already this season. These are the games that SU needs to win over the final two-thirds of its season to solidify a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and while I think those victories will come eventually, this game will not be one of them. 

Anthony Dabbundo (8-1)
Neva’ won
North Carolina 78, Syracuse 76

While the Syracuse 2-3 zone has caused plenty of opposing offenses’ trouble over the many years the Orange have played it, no team has had more success against SU in recent years than North Carolina. The Tar Heels are big. They rebound, and they love to run out in transition before the zone can get set up. It’s been a matchup nightmare for the Orange, with UNC winning nine of the last 10 meetings. The Tar Heels rank third in offensive rebounding percentage, and if Sidibe is still out injured, SU will have trouble handling UNC on the glass. While UNC may have shooting issues, the rebounding will be too tough to overcome in the game’s final moments.

Syracuse will play yet another nailbiter, this time in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, but the team will come up just short, as the Orange are still unsure of who to go to and how to execute when they really need a basket late. North Carolina is the best defense the Orange have faced all year, and it will present a particularly tough test for breakout forward Quincy Guerrier. Syracuse has never won in Chapel Hill, and that doesn’t change on Tuesday.

Danny Emerman (6-3)
Payback
North Carolina 78, Syracuse 69

The last time these two teams met was right before the world stopped, so you might forget that Syracuse steamrolled the Tar Heels 81-53 in the ACC tournament.

But this isn’t last year’s UNC, a group Roy Williams decried as the “least gifted” he’d ever coached at Chapel Hill. Even with Sidibe in Syracuse’s lineup last year — and without 6-foot-11 monster Day’Ron Sharpe on the other end — the Orange were outrebounded last March. Sharpe presents a massive problem for SU underneath, and the Garrison Brooks-Sharpe high-low game will be tough to stop. If UNC takes Georgetown’s first 10 minutes from last Saturday as a blueprint, it will be a long, late night for the Orange.

Published on January 11, 2021 at 4:07 pm