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Syracuse recovered from a 20-point, second-half deficit on Saturday against Notre Dame, the largest comeback for the Orange since 2005 against Rutgers. With the come-from-behind win, SU kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive — at least for the time being. 

The Orange will travel to Durham, North Carolina, to face Duke on Monday night. The Blue Devils are coming off a big upset over No. 7 Virginia on Saturday night, fueled by a 22-point performance from its leading scorer Matthew Hurt. Duke sits in eighth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference’s standings, one spot behind SU. 

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen.

Andrew Crane (12-7)
Hurt-ing the zone
Duke 75, Syracuse 68

Until Duke knocked off Virginia on Saturday night, I probably would’ve picked Syracuse here. But now the Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season and have won three straight games heading into Monday. They have a top-15 offense in terms of adjusted efficiency, and rank in the top 78 nationally in both 2- and 3-point shooting, per KenPom. 

SU will need to take advantage of Duke’s poor 3-point defense and string together makes like Buddy Boehiem did against Notre Dame. But instead, look for Hurt to heat up from 3 against the 2-3 zone and pose problems for Syracuse the entire game. Syracuse somehow erased a 20-point deficit against the Fighting Irish, but I don’t see a comeback of 10 or 12 happening against Duke.

Anthony Dabbundo (15-4)
Cameron Clunker
Duke 80, Syracuse 72

The Orange’s comeback win against Notre Dame on Saturday was impressive and deserves praise. But Syracuse has had too many periods of poor execution and lethargic play at both ends of the floor to trust them to win an ACC road game at Duke, even if Cameron Indoor Stadium doesn’t have any fans. The Blue Devils are playing better in their last few games and just knocked off No. 7 Virginia on Saturday. Duke can rebound better than the Orange and will score on this Syracuse defense. SU hasn’t shown it can produce consistently good 40-minute showings on the road the entire season. 

Duke is actually quite underrated, given how far down the national narrative is on their program this season. They’ve been the victims of running into hot shooting teams and lost multiple close games. Duke has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country per KenPom.

The Orange only have one win against a top 40 KenPom opponent, and they don’t have any Quadrant I wins. That will remain true after Monday night’s loss and will put SU in a position where they have to win all its remaining regular season games to make a case for an NCAA at-large bid. 

Danny Emerman (13-6)
Hurt so good
Syracuse 80, Duke 73

Hurt at the top of the zone is going to be a problem, but as long as Duke’s other shooters don’t catch fire, Syracuse will have answers. Duke doesn’t pose much of a threat on the boards, and the key for SU all year has been winning the rebound battle — SU lost it in all six of its losses. Forward Quincy Guerrier will have ample opportunity to build on his strong second half against Notre Dame inside. Alan Griffin should bounce back to form after struggling Saturday, and Buddy Boeheim suddenly has rediscovered his shooting stroke. 

For all the talk about how Duke is playing great basketball and peaking at the right time, Syracuse has three straight wins and won four of its last five. As much as Boeheim hates talking about the NCAA Tournament, it’s absolutely time for bubble watch, and even more so time for Syracuse to make a final push. 

This is a chance for Syracuse to capture its first Quadrant 1 win of the year, pending Virginia Tech remains where it is in the NET Rankings. SU is the better team, and will come away with it. 

Published on February 21, 2021 at 10:20 pm