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Syracuse closed out the regular season with two big wins against North Carolina and Clemson, both NCAA Tournament teams. The No. 8 seeded Orange now face No. 9 seed NC State in Greensboro, North Carolina on Wednesday at 12 p.m. 

A loss would likely end the Orange’s season and bury their March Madness hopes; a win means they’d face No. 1 seed Virginia, who beat SU in a 23-point thrashing in late January. After a roundtable draft on Monday where our beat writers selected the Atlantic Coast Conference’s biggest difference-makers from the 2020-21 regular season, we asked them to evaluate Syracuse’s season thus far and look forward to the future. 

Here’s how they answered some of SU men’s basketball’s most pressing questions:

A potential scenario for the Orange is a win over NC State in the second round and a loss to No. 1 seed Virginia in the quarterfinal. In that scenario, do you think Syracuse makes the tournament? Does Syracuse deserve a spot in the tournament?

Andrew Crane: In Joe Lunardi’s March 9 seed list, Syracuse was No. 71 — meaning the Orange are among the “First Four Out.” A win over Virginia in the quarterfinals would essentially lock up a bid, but there are definitely scenarios where the Orange make the tournament even without that second win in Greensboro. And although that might be the case, I don’t think SU really deserves a spot without a win against the Cavaliers on Thursday.

SU’s only potential Quadrant 1 win from the regular season has fluctuated between Q-1 and Q-2 because of NC State’s teetering in and out of the top 75. Blowout losses to teams such as Duke and the pair of losses to Pittsburgh were flat-out awful, and disaster was brewing in a 20-point deficit to Notre Dame before the Orange somehow erased that. But in classic Syraucse fashion, it can essentially control its NCAA Tournament destiny in Greensboro and lift a once-sinking season off the bubble even when, at times, that seemed impossible.

Anthony Dabbundo: I actually picked NC State for Wednesday’s game in our beat writer predictions, but it’s really a tossup game. If the Orange add another Q-2 win to their resume with a win on Wednesday, and if they’re reasonably competitive with Virginia on Thursday in a loss, I believe they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament as one of the last four in. Many of the bubble teams are in the Mountain West, American and Big East. We’ve seen that mid-majors don’t quite get the respect they deserve in the eyes of the selection committee, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Orange above Drake, Saint Louis and Utah State. 

Whether they deserve to be in is another question. Their resume is thin and lacking a marquee win, especially away from home. But you could argue the Orange have zero truly bad losses, considering their lone bad loss came after a COVID-19 pause at home to Pittsburgh. 

Danny Emerman: There are only 10 people who can really answer this question, and they’re on the NCAA selection committee. That’s not a cop out, it’s the truth. That group of people often works in mysterious ways.

If SU beats NC State then loses to Virginia, it’ll have one Q-1 win and no losses. Nearly everything broke right for them over the weekend in various mid-major conference tournaments, but it still likely needs some help. If Duke makes a run, that could really hurt SU, given the Blue Devils have more Q-1 wins and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. I think SU’s resume looks better than the Big East bubble teams — Xavier, Seton Hall and St. John’s — but teams such as Saint Louis, Utah State and SMU need to disappoint.

The teams I see potentially dropping out of the “last four in” group in favor of the Orange are Xavier and Boise State. Those are the teams to watch. A win over NC State does enough to put SU on par or ahead of them in my opinion. Then SU’s big-name brand could be enough to propel it in. 

But whatever I think doesn’t mean much. It’s all about what the selection committee thinks.

At the beginning of the season, we asked for your X-factors. Has your answer changed since, and if so, who’s been your X-factor for SU through the regular season? 

A.C.: Heading into the season, my X-factor was Quincy Guerrier, and I think I’ll stand by that. He was the Orange’s MVP throughout the first half of the season, but he took massive steps backward — scoring 18 or more points just once since a win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 23. He’s struggled defensively in the 2-3 zone, too. Buddy Boehiem and Alan Griffin have become more consistent options on offense over the last two or three weeks, but when Guerrier is able to control possessions from the blocks and occasionally hit a 3-pointer or two, that raises the effectiveness of SU’s offense by a couple of notches. He’s scored nine or fewer points in three of the Orange’s past five games, though.

If I had to change my X-factor, it’d be to Griffin. He’s taken over games, including Syracuse’s game-deciding second-half run against Clemson, and is a streaky shooter who can connect time after time but also miss time after time. But I’ll stick with the more consistent option in Guerrier. Griffin ended the regular season with two 20-plus point games in Syracuse’s final three, and the Orange will need their junior forward to return to his production level from earlier in the season to even stand a chance in the Tournament — if they get there.

A.D.: My preseason X-factor was Guerrier, but I’m changing that pick to Kadary Richmond for the postseason. Richmond has emerged as the Orange’s best point guard, and his minutes in recent games are finally backing that up. When the two teams played in Raleigh, Richmond had a personal 6-0 run that featured multiple steals to help SU beat NC State. In Syracuse, the Orange’s defense improved when Richmond came in at the top of the 2-3 zone. He also had a crucial drive and layup in the final minute to help secure the narrow victory. Richmond can be the difference maker for the Orange on Wednesday because of his length against smaller NC State guards, and he can be the difference if the Orange make the NCAA Tournament and want to win a game or two. 

D.E.: I looked back to my preseason X-factor and discovered quite the time capsule artifact. On guard Joe Girard III, I wrote the following: 

Whether he can take a leap from his strong freshman year by limiting turnovers, becoming a more efficient off-the-bounce shooter and improving defensively will be key. Syracuse has built this team around a Girard-Buddy Boeheim backcourt, a potentially potent offensive duo that might also be unsustainable on defense. Girard has more room for growth, so this year is critical for his development and the long-term outlook of SU’s core. 

There’s some truth to that, particularly the defensive concerns, but it’s a reminder of how promising Girard was entering this season and how disappointing the year’s been for him. Of course, he’s nothing close to an X-factor for the Orange by any definition. His backup, Richmond, has been far more of a game-changer off the bench. But my X-factor heading into the ACC tournament now is Griffin. You never really know which Griffin you’re going to get, but SU needs the one that’s flying around defensively, hitting tough shots and getting on the boards. That’s when the Orange are most dangerous. 

Syracuse lost Elijah Hughes to the NBA Draft during the offseason. Did the Orange succeed in fully replacing his production?

A.C.: I think the answer is yes, but not with one person specifically. Griffin was pegged all offseason as the one to replace Hughes’ production, but he’s had games with zero points, 28 points and a hodge-podge of numbers in between. Hughes was the clear option to take over late in games for Syracuse, but who’s that option now? I’m not convinced that even after 23 games I could confidently say that’s Buddy, Griffin or Guerrier. With another offensive weapon, I think Griffin could reach that point next year, but he’s not quite at that point yet.

A.D: The loss of Hughes to the NBA Draft lowered Syracuse’s ceiling and propensity to beat a top ranked team this season, but the Orange’s offense is statistically just as good as it was last season. It’s been a by-committee approach, where it’s often difficult to predict who will lead the Orange in scoring on a game-to-game basis. Guerrier dominated the first half of the season but has cooled off. Buddy started the season slow but has been red hot recently. Griffin is a game-to-game enigma, but he’s had flashes of brilliance. The Orange adjusted offensive efficiency rank is 11 spots lower this year than last on KenPom, but on a points per 100 possessions basis, they’re running 0.1 points ahead, about the same. Syracuse’s issues are not its offense, at all. They could probably shoot better than they actually do, but otherwise, Syracuse’s offense is more than good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, ranking 32nd in efficiency. 

D.E.: They certainly haven’t replaced Hughes’ propensity for ridiculous full-court shots. In seriousness, SU replaced its departing leading scorer better than anyone could’ve hoped. His production’s been replicated in a variety of ways — although he’s likely missed defensively — by a variety of players. And though Hughes was a terrific go-to isolation player in tight games, the Orange haven’t really had difficulty closing games, either. SU’s offense is just as efficient without Hughes, and that’s a testament to Buddy getting hot late, an explosive Richmond and Griffin’s scoring bursts. 

Have the Orange underachieved or overachieved this regular season based on your preseason expectations?

A.C.: I pegged Syracuse’s record at 11-9 in ACC play, and they ended up going 9-7, so they pretty much met my expectations there. But they did it in an unusual way. I wouldn’t have predicted that the Orange would lose twice to Pittsburgh, but they did. I wouldn’t have predicted a win over a ranked Virginia Tech team, but they did that, too. And I think that unusual path to 9-7 reflects in my beat writer prediction record. I think what’s disappointing about a 9-7 record in conference play this year is that the conference went through a down year with no clear-cut, top-tier members, besides Virginia and Florida State. I’m curious if having Bourama Sidibe for a full season could’ve lifted the Orange to a top-four seed in the conference tournament, perhaps limiting the 31-point outburst from Moses Wright or North Carolina’s 24 offensive rebounds in Chapel Hill.

A.D: I predicted Syracuse to go 12-8 in the ACC and 6-1 in nonconference play. They finished 6-1 in the nonconference and 9-7 in the ACC. Of those four games that were canceled and never made up (at Wake, FSU, Louisville, at Louisville), SU would have likely been favored in two of them. The Orange finished right around my expectation for them overall, but the ACC was also worse than I thought it would be. I thought SU would be just on the right side of the bubble entering postseason play, and they’re on the wrong side. 

For that reason, I have to say SU underachieved. We should probably expect Syracuse to be a perennial bubble team now, and that’s what it is heading into the ACC tournament. We’ll never know what would have happened with Sidibe in the lineup all year, but it’s very hard to see Syracuse winning more than one or two extra games (Pitt and at UNC come to mind), even with Sidibe. 

D.E.: I expected Syracuse last year to be slightly better than it was, and it ended up being very similar. This discussion would’ve been interesting to view had the games against Florida State and Wake Forest and the two with Louisville not been canceled. I predicted an 11-9 ACC record, so the 9-7 finish is on pace with that. Last year’s team was also coming on late, and this year’s group finished the regular season with two-straight wins. The ACC tournament will decide if SU finishes as I thought — in the upper-middle class of the ACC and in the NCAA Tournament — or underachieves. Even though Syracuse has spent the last several Marches on the bubble, SU is a legacy program, and anything but an NCAA Tournament bid is a disappointment. 

Syracuse’s defense has been up-and-down all season. Boeheim said it was the “worst I’ve seen it” after SU lost to Pitt, and Syracuse also held Clemson to just 54 points less than a week ago. Will the defensive inconsistency eventually lead to the end of SU’s season?

A.C.: Absolutely. Defensive inconsistency or rebounding are the two main problems that have followed Syracuse throughout its season, and it’s the surest way for opponents to eliminate it in the postseason. SU hasn’t really strung together games where they’ve stifled teams or won games with its defense, but the win against Clemson to close the regular season presents an interesting situation that could potentially serve as a turning point. Giving up 96 points to Pitt is embarrassing — including 64 (64!) in one half — and the Orange nearly suffered another late collapse against Georgetown. But Syraucse’s press was the reason it came back from down 20 against Notre Dame. Despite Boeheim saying after Rutgers that his team couldn’t “press a pair of pants,” SU’s press has been successful at times, though horrific at others. The offense has produced at the rate of a tournament team, but the defense has, and will continue to, hold that production back.

A.D: Syracuse’s defense is the reason that most experts in bracketology see the Orange in the “First Four Out” category instead of in the NCAA Tournament field. I was bullish on SU’s defense entering the season, and that was foolish. KenPom rates the Orange 85th in defensive efficiency. Bart Torvik has the Orange 83rd overall, but 121st in the last 10 games and 179th against quality teams ranked inside the top 50. 

The Orange’s defense has been torched far too often — Virginia scored 81 points, Pitt 96, Rutgers 79, Duke 85 and Georgia Tech 84. The Orange have lacked consistently, and Boeheim has been asked multiple times about his defense’s effort or lack thereof. When the Orange lost to Duke, Boeheim said that a starter told him he didn’t play any defense in the first half. It’s not just the guards, the center or the forwards — it’s everyone. And if SU misses the Tournament, the defense is why. 

D.E.: The defense has had quite the roller coaster season. At first, the guards’ defense was porous, allowing dribble penetration and easy high-post entries. The forwards often covered that up slightly but struggled without a traditional rim-protector. As the top of the zone started to figure it out, the forwards started to struggle more. Boeheim lauded them for missed rotations, and it seemed Guerrier and Griffin occasionally got caught too far away from the hoop (though they may have been assigned to help the guards on the perimeter). 

The zone works when SU has the right personnel and everyone’s on a string. For the last two games, that was the case. I don’t see why the Orange can’t use the defensive strides from their Clemson and UNC wins going forward. Getting Jesse Edwards and Richmond on the floor helps, and the forwards appear more comfortable every game. Any run will require SU getting stops, and it’s quite possible SU has turned the corner defensively.

Published on March 9, 2021 at 10:52 pm