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Syracuse opens the ACC Tournament on Wednesday with a second-round game against NC State, a team it beat twice during the regular season. Wins against Clemson and North Carolina last week put the Orange one step closer to lifting their season back off the bubble and into an NCAA Tournament berth, but a win or two in the conference tournament is still necessary for that to happen.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s three beat writers think will happen on Wednesday in Greensboro, North Carolina:

Andrew Crane (14-9)
Pack for more
Syracuse 77, NC State 72

After needing a last-second shot to bounce off the rim, the Orange pulled away in the second half on Jan. 31 to beat NC State for the first time this year and start another three-game winning streak. Wins like those have placed SU’s season back on the bubble, pending what happens during the five days in Greensboro.

The Wolfpack are on a roll, but I think Syracuse has figured out a formula to consistently beat them. The Orange plugged the middle of the 2-3 zone and, even though that opened up opportunities in the corner, they found a way to prevent DJ Funderburk and Manny Bates from capitalizing on a matchup with Marek Dolezaj inside. It’s tough to beat a team three times in the same season, but I think in this scenario, the Orange could pull that off. Look for Buddy Boeheim’s recent shooting surge to continue during the tournament, and for Quincy Guerrier to near 18-points, a number he’s passed just once since Jan. 23.

Anthony Dabbundo (18-5)
Third time isn’t the charm
NC State 75, Syracuse 71

The results around the country are making it more and more likely that a win on Wednesday alone would be enough to propel the Orange into an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse has beaten NC State twice already this season. And contrary to popular belief, teams going for their third consecutive win against the same team in the same season win at a 71% clip.

Despite all of that, I’m taking the Wolfpack in this game. 

Syracuse had a 3-point shooting edge over the Wolfpack in both of those wins, and a really significant one in the first meeting. But NC State is a much better 3-point shooting team than the Orange for the season, and if the teams had shot to their percentages in both of those meetings, the Orange would have lost one and maybe both games.

Every move has a counter move, and the Wolfpack have dramatically improved since their second loss to the Orange. While the SU zone forced a ton of turnovers in the second meeting, NC State will have adjustments ready to exploit the zone’s weaknesses. In the last 10 games for each team, the Wolfpack rank 37th in Bart Torvik efficiency, while the Orange are 65th. Even though Syracuse played well at home against Clemson and North Carolina, its season ends with a very close loss to the Wolfpack.

Danny Emerman (14-9)
Blowing bubbles
Syracuse 77, NC State 71 

Although NC State enters on a five-game winning streak, four of those wins came against bottom-feeders Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack are still an opponent to be taken seriously. Keeping Bates in check and closing out to shooters is key. SU was able to turn the Wolfpack over at-will and win the rebounding battle once, and it has even more lineup options now. 

Syracuse’s defense is starting to come together. Early in the year, the guards allowed too much penetration and easy high-post entries. Later, forwards missed rotations and overextended themselves on the wings. Against Clemson and North Carolina, the 2-3 appeared more settled. Some of that is due to inserting Jesse Edwards into the five spot for more minutes, and some of that is likely due to just having more experience and continuity with the scheme. Regardless, it’s a crucial development for an SU team that’s been borderline elite offensively for most of the year — it’s currently 32nd in the nation in adjusted offense, per KenPom.

Syracuse should have enough defense to limit the Wolfpack if Kadary Richmond’s knee holds up. As Dabbundo noted, the adage that “it’s tough to win three times in a season” is a fallacy, and the series will play out the way it should Wednesday: with the Orange advancing.

Published on March 9, 2021 at 4:16 pm