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Since joining the Big East in the 1979-80 season, Syracuse has participated in a conference tournament almost every season. The only exception came in the 2014-15 campaign when a self-imposed postseason ban due to an NCAA investigation left the Orange out of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.

While SU has failed to make any noise in the conference tournament since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, an automatic qualification allowed the Orange to at least participate each year. In its 12th season in the league, Syracuse won’t have the same luxury.

As part of an evolving world of college athletics, the ACC expanded to 18 teams by adding SMU, Stanford and Cal this year. Despite the additions, the conference decided to stick with its 15-team conference tournament. So, for the first time in its 70-year history, teams will be left out of the event.

Six games into ACC play, SU is 2-4 and in the bottom third of its standings. With a difficult schedule ahead, the expansion makes missing the conference tournament a real possibility for Syracuse.

“In our conference, if you don’t make it, obviously it’s disappointment with the program, with the fan base,” SU second-year head coach Adrian Autry said Monday. “But our league is very tough. It’s a Power Five League, and winning is hard. So obviously, when you don’t make the tournament and you’re that one team, that’s very disappointing.”

Syracuse is currently on pace to win just six of its 20 ACC games. KenPom sees the Orange doing even worse, predicting SU to win only four conference matchups and go 2-12 the rest of the way.

No matter how you slice it, both of those totals would be its least amount of conference victories since the 1980-81 season. Still, SU has never won less than eight games in the ACC. The Orange haven’t won an ACC Tournament game since the 2021-22 season over Florida State — the Buddy Boeheim punch game. In its 10 ACC Tournament appearances, Syracuse is just 5-9.

It’s a far cry from the golden ages of the Big East, where SU captured five tournament championships between 1981-2006 and were runner-ups seven times. Even there, the league limited conference tournament participation to 12 schools from 2001-08, and the Orange easily qualified each time.

But this is a different NCAA landscape. And in turn, it’s a different challenge for SU.

SMU, a team with limited NCAA Tournament history, joined the ACC from the American Athletic Conference. In their first year in the conference, the Mustangs have beaten the cellar dwellers, taking down Virginia, Boston College and Georgia Tech by double digits.

Stanford hasn’t made the national tournament in over a decade but has found its footing thus far. The Cardinal elevated to the middle of the pack in the conference with wins over Cal, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

To round out the fresh trio is Cal, which hasn’t produced a winning record in conference play since the 2016-17 season. The trend has continued in the ACC, where the Golden Bears have started 1-4.

Syracuse has yet to play either of the three teams, with a West Coast trip planned for late January and a date with the Mustangs set for March 4. The Orange, however, are still affected by their involvement due to the tournament changes. As the season wanes on, it could be an added pressure point for a team already taking heat.

“Obviously we started off with a slow start,” Autry said Monday. “In the last couple of games, we’ve been able to kind of bounce back, but I think we’re still improving. We’re still getting better.”

Autry’s right in the fact that SU’s slow start was obvious. The absence of J.J. Starling led to an 0-2 start to conference play, dropping games to Notre Dame and Wake Forest. Starling returned against Florida State, but a 16-point loss ensued.

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Since defeating the Orange, the Fighting Irish basketball team has struggled to match the success of their football program. ND is just 1-4 outside of its win over SU, defeating only Boston College. The Demon Deacons, meanwhile, have accumulated a 4-1 record in ACC play, falling only to Clemson.

Syracuse then met two evenly matched conference foes, capturing victories over Georgia Tech and BC. Both wins weren’t pretty. And both barely happened. But a two-game winning streak with Starling leading the way built up SU’s confidence through a tumultuous time.

“We always knew where we stood, despite our record,” Kyle Cuffe Jr. said after Syracuse’s win over the Eagles. “But with two wins, we’re gonna be ready, we’re gonna keep pushing. I feel like we can make some noise in the ACC.”

Following the quarter mark of the Orange’s ACC schedule, Autry pointed out rebounding as the team’s consistent strength. For areas to improve, he emphasized SU’s ability to secure the basketball, have good shot selection and corral rebounds when it matters most.

All three areas collapsed when Syracuse looked to extend its winning streak to three against Louisville Tuesday. The Orange were outrebounded 37-32, recorded 14 turnovers and shot 8-for-25 from 3. It didn’t help that Starling scored a season-low four points, leading to a 24-point loss.

The performance was a setback but likely a sign of things to come. The road only gets more difficult going forward, as SU will face nine Quad 1 or 2 teams in its final 14 games. KenPom sees the Orange losing all but two games.

Barring an unforeseen catastrophic change, an at-large NCAA Tournament bid is out of the picture. The priority for Syracuse shifts to handling the teams currently below it in the ACC standings — Notre Dame, Cal, Virginia, Boston College and Miami. SU will have a crack at each, likely deciding which teams will take the plane ride to Charlotte.

The Orange already have generated a season full of more downs than ups. Seniors set to graduate in 2025 are on track to be the first class since 1972 to miss out on seeing SU in March Madness. If they can’t scrape together a few wins over the next month and a half, the Orange’s spot in the ACC takes an even more embarrassing dip, and possibly a historic one outside the conference tournament.

Published on January 15, 2025 at 11:10 pm

Contact Aiden at: amstepan@syr.edu | @AidenStepansky